Over the fast few weeks, there have been a number of polls in the newspapers, all telling us different things, as to the popularity of the three main parties with the general public. Stephen Crabb MP, explains what the polls mean to an MP.

Last week saw a flurry of opinion polls which seem to point in different directions.

Back at the start of last week MORI, bizarrely, were reporting a 2% lead for Labour and the headlines were all about poll gloom for Cameron and the Tories.

Last Tuesday Communicate Research, run by Andrew Hawkins (my old boss from our London Chamber of Commerce days), gave the Conservative Party 38%, six points clear of Labour who were on 32%. Then ICM gave us a bumper 10 point lead (with Lab-29% and Lib Dem-22%).

Friday’s (27th October) YouGov poll for the Daily Telegraph also shows a healthy Conservative lead (Con-39%, Lab-32%, Lib Dem-16%).

Even in these volatile times the political mood of the country cannot possibly have swung so much in a few short days. So what is one to make of all these figures?

The real number-crunchers who seem to understand these things hang out on a website called politicalbetting.com. They spend hours scientifically discussing the figures and the research methodology used by each pollster. I claim no such expertise but here is my reading of the current situation:

• The MORI poll seems to be way off and can be disregarded

• David Cameron’s lead in the polls is real and sustained; there has been a definite shift in the mood of the country during 2006

• The shift is not yet big enough to deliver an overall Conservative election victory which means that we have some hard work ahead if we are to avoid a ‘hung’ Parliament at the next General Election

• The proportion of people who care little for the main parties seems to be growing (none of the Big Three gets anywhere near commanding majority support)

Now here’s my main point: none of the above conclusions comes from this week’s opinion polls. A few Saturday mornings spent talking informally to people on their doorsteps, in an area with a reasonable social mix, can provide exactly the same general conclusions as those that come from the various polls. Furthermore, by doing this you can glean huge amounts of information about the issues that really matter to people on a daily basis. Even more crucially, it can demonstrate to people that you care more about THEM than you do about their VOTES.

So, a big lesson for elected politicians and aspiring candidates: Don’t spend more than 10 seconds thinking about the opinion polls. Make time instead to knock on doors and talk to people yourself. And, who knows, you might even make some valuable friends for you and your party…

Stephen Crabb MP, was elected to Parliament in 2005, and is Member of Parliament for Preseli Pembrokeshire. You read more of Stephen’s thoughts and opinions here

This entry was posted on Thursday, November 2nd, 2006 at 2:50 pm and is filed under Stephen Crabb. You can follow any responses to this entry through the RSS 2.0 feed. You can leave a response, or trackback from your own site.